Hilton Parkes Real Estate
February 2019

Terry’s View

It’s difficult for real estate consumers to determine what’s really going on in major property markets because researchers, economists and journalists present generalised price data. There will be one figure to describe what’s happening with house prices in Melbourne and one figure to describe Sydney.

The reality is that there are multiple scenarios playing out across all of our major city markets and the single-figure approach misleads more than it informs. In Melbourne, most research sources declare that house prices have decreased in the past 12 months (how much depends on which source you believe) but there are many locations where prices are still rising. Prices have undoubtedly dropped in many of the top end suburbs, but the middle market remains firm and prices are still rising in the cheaper outer-ring suburbs.

In Perth, most sources still have house prices down a little in annual terms, but the top end locations are delivering good price growth. The Adelaide market overall is showing only moderate growth, but the millionaire suburbs are growing strongly. These kinds of distinctions need to be made for all our city markets.

Aussies Remain Bullish On Prices: Canstar
Despite headlines about falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne, a new survey by Canstar shows many Australians remain optimistic about property prices – they found 5% expect prices to “skyrocket”, with an additional 33% expecting steady growth and around 25% predicting prices will remain stable. 

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FHB Numbers Highest In Six Years
In November, almost 10,500 first-home buyers took out a home loan, just off the highest number in almost nine years, according to CommSec’s chief economist Craig James. And as a proportion of all buyers, the share of first-home buyers is at six-year highs at 18.3% in November.
Affordability Up In Most Capitals
Australia’s record home-building boom continues to improve housing affordability, according to HIA Senior Economist Geordan Murray. Affordability in six of the eight capital cities is now better than the 20-year average. The HIA Affordability Index for Australia’s capital cities registered 75.4 in the December 2018 Quarter. This is a level that is 1.5% higher than in the previous quarter and 3.3% higher than a year earlier.

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